Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc406…1deb crypto 264 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,672 (-12%) realized −$6,672 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%120W / 144L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day78.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$2,275
sports 1% −$158
other 1% −$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -10.3% -18.9% 46% 41% -16.9%
≤30d 152 -16.4% -24.4% 41% 39% -20.7%
≤90d 264 -12.6% -21.0% 45% 42% -13.3%
all 264 -12.6% -21.0% 45% 42% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.0% 42% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 38% -21.6%
15% -35.4% 33% -29.2%
20% -41.8% 26% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$125 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,672
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses120 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)264 / 264
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$215
Trades / day78.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 264 Trades
no open positions (65 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $113 −$111 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 24 $296 −$244 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $38 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $184 +$149 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 24 $217 −$144 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $137 +$189 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $71 +$66 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $71 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $472 −$472 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $375 +$77 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $228 +$192 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $221 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 24 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $1,448 −$736 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 24 $810 −$75 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 24 $170 −$74 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $37 −$8 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 23 $551 +$357 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 23 $385 +$156 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $483 +$113 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $65 −$62 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $344 −$21 -6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$29 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $316 +$78 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $184 +$96 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $32 −$12 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $136 +$124 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $186 −$186 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $173 +$15 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $367 −$121 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $231 +$56 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $77 −$49 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $71 −$31 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $174 +$123 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $22 +$17 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $48 +$63 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $122 +$76 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $22 +$41 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $94 −$91 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $262 −$257 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $179 +$81 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $153 −$81 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $69 +$44 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $118 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $229 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $333 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $184 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 0¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $209 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $326 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $110 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $137 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $71 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $70 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $23 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $47 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records