Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:55:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc406…5b8c
sports · 20 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,044 -26%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,064 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$50
Realized−$1,064
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage19d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 3 History 17 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$128
7 days−$2,190
14 days−$1,030
30 days−$1,064
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Over 15¢ 16¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jessica Bouzas Maneiro $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 72¢ $128 $0 −$128 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Down 47¢ $470 $0 −$470 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Tatjana Maria 23¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Jovic vs Eala Eala 35¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 49¢ $637 $0 −$637 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Yes 30¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 22¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Marie Bouzkova 18¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 16¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 49¢ $980 $0 −$980 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $129 −$128 -99%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $67 +$63 +93%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $22 +$67 +303%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$9 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $637 −$637 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $980 −$980 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 09 $470 −$470 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $62 −$60 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 07 $125 +$155 +124%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $414 +$386 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 05 $780 +$718 +92%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro May 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Set 1 Winner: Jovic vs Eala May 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala May 26 $16 −$16 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 86% −$828
other 9% −$213
sports 5% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 15¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $56 39h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $74 39h
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu SELL Emma Raducanu 100¢ $130 2d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 51¢ $67 2d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic BUY Marie Bouzkova 18¢ $18 2d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 23¢ $35 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 89¢ $89 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $15 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $622 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $9 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -26.0% -33.1% 30% 30% -90.8%
≤30d 17 -20.7% -28.2% 35% 35% -34.3%
≤90d 17 -20.7% -28.2% 35% 35% -34.3%
all 17 -20.7% -28.2% 35% 35% -34.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 35% -34.3%
10% -35.1% 35% -40.6%
15% -41.4% 35% -46.3%
20% -47.1% 29% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.71 · official $49.71 (match) · 51 history records