Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:48:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C4 0xc406…f9a3 politics 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$92 (-0%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 15L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,235per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$17
economics 36% $0
sports 4% +$3
other 2% −$78
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -35.5% -41.7% 0% 0% -41.7%
all 17 -2.7% -12.0% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$1,004) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage183d
Avg bet$1,235
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 06 $139 −$49 -36%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 25 $965 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Feb 14 $966 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Feb 12 $967 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 10 $968 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 08 $969 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 06 $1,975 −$2 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 04 $967 +$3 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 02 $967 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 31 $968 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 29 $969 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $315 −$29 -9%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $999 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Jan 23 $1,004 −$5 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 21 $1,005 −$1 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 19 $7,036 +$1 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 1¢ $23 49d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $74 57d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $66 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 103d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $59 103d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 103d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $964 119d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $965 122d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $965 130d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $966 131d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $966 132d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $967 133d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $967 134d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $968 135d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $968 136d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $969 137d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $969 138d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $970 139d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $970 140d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $967 141d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $967 142d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $967 143d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $967 144d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $968 145d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $968 146d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $969 147d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $286 147d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $315 149d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $998 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.14 · official $45.14 (match) · 82 history records