Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:24:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc406…ba02 world 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,088 (+13%) realized +$1,633 · open −$545
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate53%39W / 34L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$613now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$90
14 days−$90
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$1,879
other 19% −$200
politics 10% −$466
sports 2% −$137
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -73.8% -76.3% 0% 0% -76.3%
≤30d 1 -73.8% -76.3% 0% 0% -76.3%
≤90d 23 -14.6% -22.7% 30% 13% +31.7%
all 73 +19.7% +8.3% 53% 26% +13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.3% 26% +13.3%
10% -2.0% 21% +2.4%
15% -11.5% 15% -7.5%
20% -20.2% 14% -16.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$41 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$613
Realized+$1,633
Unrealized−$545
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses39 / 34
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions19
Markets (closed)73 / 95
History coverage155d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Yes 15¢ $479 $272 −$207 (-43%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $186 $147 −$39 (-21%)
NATO article 5 before 2027? Yes 15¢ $154 $75 −$79 (-51%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes $213 $68 −$145 (-68%)
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $32 $18 −$14 (-43%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Yes $25 $2 −$23 (-92%)
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Yes 74¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Yes 25¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? Yes 36¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-57%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 41¢ 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-57%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? Yes 18¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Yes $6 $0 −$5 (-98%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 65¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Yes 12¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Yes 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No 45¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Yes 33¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $122 −$90 -74%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 12 $1,222 −$171 -14%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? May 12 $117 −$58 -50%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 09 $1 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $2,217 +$2,585 +117%
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? May 02 $165 −$27 -16%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? May 02 $1 $0 -0%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Apr 30 $54 −$25 -47%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $169 −$85 -50%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $7 −$5 -72%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $8 −$5 -63%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $10 −$5 -50%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Apr 19 $60 −$10 -17%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30? Apr 17 $1 $0 -1%
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 17 $1 $0 +6%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 14 $143 −$142 -99%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? Apr 04 $1 $0 -1%
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Apr 04 $1 $0 -0%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Apr 04 $1 $0 +1%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Apr 04 $2 $0 +3%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 04 $1 $0 +23%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? Mar 25 $1 $0 +10%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ukraine join the Board of Peace? Mar 19 $2 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will Norway join the Board of Peace? Mar 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Denmark join the Board of Peace? Mar 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 19 $1 $0 +24%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 19 $1 $0 +15%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? Mar 14 $14 −$9 -64%
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31? Mar 10 $1 $0 +26%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage Mar 05 $1 $0 +9%
Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026 Mar 05 $1 $0 +11%
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026? Mar 04 $1 $0 +11%
Bitway FDV above $20M one day after launch? Mar 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in March 2026? Mar 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Mar 02 $10 $0 +3%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Mar 02 $10 $0 +3%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 01 $1 $0 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $145 −$50 -35%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 01 $188 −$9 -5%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $1 $0 +7%
Will Khamenei visit Russia by March 31? Mar 01 $1 $0 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 01 $1 $0 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Feb 28 $1 $0 -36%
Will Khamenei visit Russia by June 30? Feb 28 $197 −$8 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Feb 28 $1 $0 +36%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Feb 28 $1 +$1 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argen BUY 22¢ $32 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $32 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AN BUY 29¢ $226 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Will G BUY $4 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $122 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $33 18d
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 23d
NATO article 5 before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $34 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $180 40d
Will Putin visit China by May 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $1,051 40d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? SELL Yes $55 40d
Will Putin visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,222 40d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 40d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY Yes $21 40d
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $35 43d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 43d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $180 43d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $1 43d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $1 43d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY Yes $4 43d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? SELL Yes $3 43d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,997 43d
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 50d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? SELL No 73¢ $1 50d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY Yes $12 50d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL Yes $18 51d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $46 51d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $13 55d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL Yes $10 55d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes $2 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $612.67 · official $864.82 · 245 history records