Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:02:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C4 0xc405…4aff sports 476 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,948 (+2%) realized +$5,827 · open +$1,121
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate38%176W / 284L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$718per market
Trades / day37.8pace
Fees−$3,816est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$4,641now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$236
14 days−$556
30 days+$506
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$2,721
world 36% +$9,909
other 6% −$686
crypto 0% −$1,096
economics 0% −$34
politics 0% −$14
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +35.2% +22.3% 100% 100% +27.1%
≤30d 111 +1.6% -8.0% 59% 49% -8.1%
≤90d 460 -2.1% -11.5% 38% 19% -8.3%
all 460 -2.1% -11.5% 38% 19% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 19% -8.3%
10% -19.9% 14% -17.1%
15% ← realistic here -27.7% 9% -25.1%
20% -34.8% 6% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$703) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$69 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$4,641
Realized+$5,827
Unrealized+$1,121
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses176 / 284
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$3,816
Open positions12
Markets (closed)460 / 476
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$718
Trades / day37.8
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 51¢ 86¢ $1,070 $1,815 +$746 (+70%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 54¢ 77¢ $900 $1,286 +$386 (+43%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $1,000 $993 −$7 (-1%)
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $80 $98 +$18 (+23%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 21¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 82¢ $50 $78 +$28 (+56%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 61¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 28¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-45%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $101 +$30 +30%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $77 +$23 +30%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $405 +$182 +45%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $203 +$222 +109%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $508 −$459 -90%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $405 −$340 -84%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $750 −$347 -46%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $485 −$480 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $101 +$33 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $203 +$155 +76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $505 +$241 +48%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $1,076 −$72 -7%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 +$9 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 +$37 +18%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $798 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $1,110 +$30 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $1,000 −$143 -14%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$57 +112%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $99 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $272 −$4 -1%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $708 +$405 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $403 +$159 +40%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $804 −$388 -48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $50 −$41 -81%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $503 +$120 +24%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $207 +$93 +45%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $355 +$161 +45%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $104 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$80 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $202 −$133 -66%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$69 +68%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $101 +$51 +51%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 −$70 -69%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,002 +$61 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $842 +$242 +29%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $81 −$57 -71%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $66 +$34 +51%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $201 +$61 +30%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $102 −$45 -44%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $2,000 −$203 -10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $201 +$65 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $302 +$117 +39%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $202 +$23 +12%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $253 −$86 -34%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $1,295 +$231 +18%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $359 −$49 -14%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $161 +$139 +87%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $705 +$215 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 87¢ $25 1m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 87¢ $117 4m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 87¢ $435 7m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 87¢ $4 7m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $131 31m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $100 31m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 87¢ $87 46m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 87¢ $10 48m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 87¢ $40 50m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 87¢ $870 50m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 76¢ $101 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 76¢ $77 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 45¢ $400 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 51¢ $2,000 2d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 64¢ $500 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Switzerland vs. Canada BUY 34¢ $51 3d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1,000 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 88¢ $587 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $405 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $425 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $203 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 11¢ $40 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $508 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 10¢ $65 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 60¢ $405 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 41¢ $403 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $750 8d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 9d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 77¢ $201 9d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 53¢ $81 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,640.82 · official $4,640.83 (match) · 3500 history records