Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:38:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc404…254f
world · 71 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$18 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$18 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses16 / 53
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage480d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 2 History 69 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 17¢ 17¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $22 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $21 −$1 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $51 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $91 −$2 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $38 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $41 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $42 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $12 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $89 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $32 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $38 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $5 $0 +5%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $51 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $40 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $16 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $6 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 19 $30 −$1 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $63 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $9 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $41 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $38 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $129 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $45 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $24 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $178 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $1 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $92 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $48 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $89 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 34% −$3
sports 23% +$1
other 22% −$2
politics 18% −$14
economics 4% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $13 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $18 4h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $12 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $6 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $23 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $18 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $18 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $21 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $42 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $42 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $11 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 32¢ $10 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $25 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $25 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $8 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $38 9d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $38 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $19 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $42 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $42 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 29% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 27 -0.1% -9.6% 26% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 68 -0.3% -9.8% 24% 0% -9.7%
all 69 -1.8% -11.1% 23% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.42 · official $13.26 (match) · 279 history records