Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:10:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C4 0xc402…714d crypto 447 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$327 (+6%) realized +$327 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%241W / 206L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$137
7 days−$138
14 days−$138
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$6
sports 3% +$4
politics 2% −$5
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +8.4% -1.9% 68% 57% -18.7%
≤30d 193 +10.8% +0.3% 62% 53% -9.6%
≤90d 361 +6.5% -3.7% 56% 50% -7.1%
all 447 +6.5% -3.7% 54% 49% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 49% -9.5%
10% -12.9% 45% -18.1%
15% -21.3% 41% -26.0%
20% -29.0% 37% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$327
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses241 / 206
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)447 / 447
History coverage196d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 447 Trades
no open positions (148 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 24 $145 −$140 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 24 $135 −$132 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $154 +$129 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $45 +$10 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 24 $175 −$167 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$30 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 24 $45 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$27 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 24 $7 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 24 $7 +$4 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $22 +$20 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 24 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$31 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +16%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Jun 23 $1 $0 +7%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$16 +166%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $41 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $154 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $175 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1055 history records