Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C4 0xc402…83f7 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$816 (+10%) realized +$805 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate66%23W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$943
sports 35% −$1,119
crypto 2% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +4.7% -5.2% 66% 63% -11.3%
≤30d 35 +4.7% -5.2% 66% 63% -11.3%
≤90d 35 +4.7% -5.2% 66% 63% -11.3%
all 35 +4.7% -5.2% 66% 63% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 63% -11.3%
10% -14.3% 49% -19.8%
15% -22.6% 40% -27.5%
20% -30.2% 34% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$163 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$805
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses23 / 12
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage6d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $97 $108 +$11 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,111 +$390 +35%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,402 −$1,310 -93%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $402 +$75 +19%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,548 +$275 +18%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $153 −$75 -49%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $251 +$33 +13%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $202 +$125 +62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $341 +$57 +17%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $268 +$137 +51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $222 +$105 +48%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $191 +$46 +24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $151 +$32 +21%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $25 +$24 +93%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $31 −$23 -74%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $41 $0 -1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $57 +$43 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $166 +$87 +52%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $80 +$23 +28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 +$35 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $199 +$12 +6%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $101 +$63 +62%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 17 $40 +$25 +63%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $40 +$27 +66%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 17 $20 −$6 -32%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $140 +$64 +46%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$15 -75%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$18 -88%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +54%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $100 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway $93 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 73¢ $1,402 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,402 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,018 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 98¢ $477 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $402 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $940 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 85¢ $804 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 18¢ $78 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $153 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $882 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $618 17h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Egypt 100¢ $284 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $328 24h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 88¢ $251 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 53¢ $139 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 48¢ $139 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $126 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $405 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $121 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $116 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 100¢ $237 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 80¢ $191 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $183 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.03 · official $99.56 · 80 history records