Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C3 0xc3ff…9708 sports 661 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$23,656 (+3%) realized +$23,645 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate88%576W / 82L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,348per market
Trades / day38.6pace
Fees−$326est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$21,601now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 73d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% +$19,420
other 21% −$6,598
world 20% +$2,121
crypto 18% +$1,134
politics 8% +$181
weather 2% −$13,018
tech 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -9.2% -17.8% 84% 5% -6.7%
≤30d 183 +10.6% +0.1% 87% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 658 +6.4% -3.7% 88% 6% -9.4%
all 658 +6.4% -3.7% 88% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.7% 6% -9.4%
10% -13.0% 4% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -21.4% 3% -25.9%
20% -29.1% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$577) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$339 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$21,601
Realized+$23,645
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses576 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$326
Open positions2
Markets (closed)658 / 661
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$1,348
Trades / day38.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 658 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $16,869 $16,877 +$8 (+0%)
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $4,721 $4,724 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $22,832 +$1,316 +6%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi - Toss Match Double Rw Jun 15 $54 +$1 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi - Toss Match Double Dr Jun 15 $54 +$1 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi - Toss Match Double Ma Jun 15 $54 +$1 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi - Completed match? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi - Who wins the toss? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand - Toss Match Doub Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Team Top Batte Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Team Top Batte Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Completed matc Jun 13 $5,027 +$5 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $203 −$93 -46%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1,118 +$632 +56%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1,044 +$1 +0%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Complete Jun 11 $86 +$1 +1%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $222 −$57 -26%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $30,904 +$31 +0%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Mongolia vs Myanmar - Team Top Batter Myan Jun 09 $1,027 +$1 +0%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Saudi Arabia Jun 09 $1,009 +$1 +0%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Saudi Arabia - Who wins the toss? Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
Niger vs. Mauritania: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $3,699 +$30 +1%
XRP Up or Down on May 19? Jun 08 $1,100 +$1 +0%
Solana Up or Down on May 18? Jun 08 $7,538 +$7 +0%
Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $1,958 +$2 +0%
Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros: Draw at halftime? Jun 08 $521 −$14 -3%
Exact Score: Equatorial Guinea 0 - 0 Comoros? Jun 08 $297 +$15 +5%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China - Who wins the t Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $3,158 +$141 +4%
Bahrain vs. Syria: Draw at halftime? Jun 08 $503 +$15 +3%
Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $163 +$18 +11%
Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $19 −$6 -31%
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $687 +$112 +16%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $8,347 +$7,411 +89%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $10,174 −$7,199 -71%
Will XRP dip to $1.15 on June 8? Jun 08 $246 $0 +0%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Worcestershire - Team Top Batter Glouces Jun 07 $11 $0 +1%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Worcestershire - Team Top Batter Draw Jun 07 $11 $0 +1%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Worcestershire - Most Sixes Gloucestersh Jun 07 $22 $0 +1%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Worcestershire - Team Top Batter Worcest Jun 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will Tochigi SC win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1,907 +$137 +7%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 07 $2,148 +$2 +0%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $5,248 +$5 +0%
YOM FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 06 $2,625 +$3 +0%
YOM FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 06 $99 +$1 +1%
YOM FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 06 $613 +$8 +1%
YOM FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 06 $152 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $706 1h
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $776 1h
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $44 1h
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $77 1h
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $77 1h
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $77 1h
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $444 1h
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,119 1h
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $374 1h
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 1h
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 1h
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $77 1h
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $77 1h
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $77 1h
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $77 1h
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $77 1h
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $77 1h
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $77 1h
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $776 1h
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $7,770 1h
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $7,770 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $8,505 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $7,501 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $7,501 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $13,844 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,600.80 · official $21,600.80 (match) · 3500 history records