Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3ff…7b5f crypto 327 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (539 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$156 (-17%) realized −$150 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%85W / 230L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day539.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$288
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (539 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-48.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 315 -42.5% -48.0% 27% 27% -39.4%
≤30d 315 -42.5% -48.0% 27% 27% -39.4%
≤90d 315 -42.5% -48.0% 27% 27% -39.4%
all 315 -42.5% -48.0% 27% 27% -39.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover539.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.0% 27% -39.4%
10% ← realistic here -53.0% 23% -45.2%
15% -57.5% 19% -50.5%
20% -61.7% 15% -55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$150
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses85 / 230
Open positions12
Markets (closed)315 / 327
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day539.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Up 42¢ 76¢ $4 $8 +$3 (+80%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Up 42¢ 52¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Up 40¢ 52¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+29%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Down 38¢ 48¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+28%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Down 42¢ 40¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Down 41¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Down 36¢ 24¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-33%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Down 25¢ 48¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+92%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Down 37¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Down 37¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Down 26¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 0¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 208 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +142%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$4 -44%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -20%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$12 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +61%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$7 -58%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +95%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +181%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -36%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -12%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +39%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.38 · official $39.96 (match) · 660 history records