Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3fc…484a other 172 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (466 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$74 (-1%) realized −$1,690 · open +$1,616
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate1%2W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day466.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$2,163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$1,573
politics 24% −$51
world 12% −$23
economics 7% −$30
tech 2% −$7
sports 2% −$3
finance 2% −$3
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (466 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 164 -7.4% -16.2% 1% 1% -11.5%
≤30d 164 -7.4% -16.2% 1% 1% -11.5%
≤90d 164 -7.4% -16.2% 1% 1% -11.5%
all 164 -7.4% -16.2% 1% 1% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover466.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 1% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 0% -20.0%
15% -31.5% 0% -27.7%
20% -38.3% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,163
Realized−$1,690
Unrealized+$1,616
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses2 / 162
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions57
Markets (closed)164 / 172
History coverage1d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day466.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 57 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? No 0¢ 95¢ $0 $308 +$308 (+0%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 0¢ 54¢ $0 $299 +$299 (+0%)
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? No 85¢ 79¢ $302 $281 −$20 (-7%)
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? No 0¢ 62¢ $0 $125 +$125 (+0%)
Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend? Avengers: Doomsday 0¢ 88¢ $0 $96 +$96 (+0%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC or Bytedance? No 0¢ 82¢ $0 $87 +$87 (+0%)
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30? Yes 0¢ 38¢ $0 $75 +$75 (+0%)
Will Russia capture Toretske by September 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 38¢ $0 $68 +$68 (+0%)
Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31? No 0¢ 74¢ $0 $60 +$60 (+0%)
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 0¢ 47¢ $0 $52 +$52 (+0%)
Will Trinity Tatum win Love Island USA Season 8? No 22¢ 8¢ $132 $51 −$81 (-61%)
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 42¢ $0 $49 +$49 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in July 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 0¢ 22¢ $0 $42 +$42 (+0%)
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June? No 0¢ 14¢ $0 $39 +$39 (+0%)
Will LAB reach $16 before 2027? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the AK-AL House seat? Yes 0¢ 16¢ $0 $32 +$32 (+0%)
Aligned FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 0¢ 89¢ $0 $30 +$30 (+0%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI 0¢ 13¢ $0 $28 +$28 (+0%)
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? No 0¢ 28¢ $0 $24 +$24 (+0%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $9B by December 31? No 0¢ 46¢ $0 $23 +$23 (+0%)
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 22¢ $0 $22 +$22 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-05 House seat? Yes 0¢ 11¢ $0 $22 +$22 (+0%)
Will Robert Luna win the 2026 Los Angeles County Sheriff election? No 0¢ 12¢ $0 $21 +$21 (+0%)
Will the Houston Astros clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? No 0¢ 72¢ $0 $20 +$20 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Jun 29 $36 −$1 -2%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-06 House seat? Jun 29 $47 $0 -1%
Will LAB dip to $14 before 2027? Jun 29 $3 −$1 -22%
Will Napheesa Collier have the highest points per game in the WNBA 202 Jun 29 $0 $0 -8%
Ventuals FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 29 $29 $0 -1%
Will the Republican Party win the RI-02 House seat? Jun 29 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 29 $158 −$2 -1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $192 −$3 -2%
Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midt Jun 29 $3 −$2 -52%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Jun 29 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1 $0 -4%
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? Jun 29 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Republican Party win the NY-07 House seat? Jun 29 $2 −$1 -23%
Will the Republican Party win the PA-09 House seat? Jun 29 $47 $0 -0%
Will DR Congo be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 29 $4 $0 -3%
Will DR Congo be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 29 $7 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? Jun 29 $18 −$2 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in July 2026? Jun 29 $417 −$2 -0%
Will Dylan Cease win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Jun 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series Jun 29 $98 −$2 -2%
Will Gina Raimondo announce a Presidential run before 2027? Jun 29 $2 $0 -4%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $375 Week of June 29 2026 Jun 29 $19 $0 -2%
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the Storytim Jun 29 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $48 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run before 2027? Jun 29 $7 $0 -2%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 29 $130 −$7 -5%
Will the Republican Party win the LA-01 House seat? Jun 29 $372 −$5 -1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard announce a presidential run before 2027? Jun 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Jun 29 $8 $0 -4%
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-11 House seat? Jun 29 $3 $0 -14%
Will the Detroit Tigers clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? Jun 29 $0 $0 -9%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.50 Week of June 2 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -62%
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-10 House seat? Jun 29 $24 −$5 -20%
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 28 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Ghana reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States mi Jun 28 $93 −$2 -2%
Will Mike Pence announce a presidential run before 2027? Jun 28 $0 $0 -4%
Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian S Jun 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIF Jun 28 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 $0 -5%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $41 $0 -0%
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 28 $218 −$3 -2%
Will Germany be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after th Jun 28 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $10 $0 -5%
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 20 Jun 28 $7 $0 -7%
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $360 −$5 -1%
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? Jun 28 $0 $0 +0%
Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? Jun 28 $34 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? SELL No 71¢ $35 2m
Will LAB reach $16 before 2027? SELL Yes 95¢ $14 2m
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY No 72¢ $36 3m
Will LAB reach $16 before 2027? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 3m
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 10m
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 10m
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2 SELL No 83¢ $189 14m
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2 SELL No 84¢ $14 14m
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2 BUY No 85¢ $508 14m
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-06 House seat? SELL Yes 94¢ $47 17m
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-06 House seat? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 17m
Will LAB dip to $14 before 2027? SELL No 5¢ $2 21m
Will LAB dip to $14 before 2027? BUY No 6¢ $3 21m
Will Napheesa Collier have the highest points per game in the WNBA 202 SELL Yes 2¢ $0 23m
Will Napheesa Collier have the highest points per game in the WNBA 202 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 23m
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? SELL Yes 71¢ $207 24m
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? SELL Yes 71¢ $15 24m
Ventuals FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL No 96¢ $3 29m
Ventuals FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL No 96¢ $2 29m
Ventuals FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL No 96¢ $24 29m
Will the Republican Party win the RI-02 House seat? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 29m
Ventuals FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $29 29m
Will the Republican Party win the RI-02 House seat? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 30m
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 78¢ $117 32m
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 79¢ $39 32m
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $158 32m
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian S SELL No 62¢ $149 33m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 48¢ $189 36m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 48¢ $192 36m
Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midt SELL No 2¢ $1 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,162.75 · official $2,157.29 (match) · 469 history records