Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:02:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C3 0xc3fc…abdf other 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$29 (-4%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$164
7 days+$55
14 days+$46
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$43
crypto 1% +$3
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-48.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -38.6% -44.5% 42% 42% -0.9%
≤30d 13 -43.3% -48.7% 38% 38% -2.5%
≤90d 13 -43.3% -48.7% 38% 38% -2.5%
all 13 -43.3% -48.7% 38% 38% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.7% 38% -2.5%
10% -53.6% 38% -11.8%
15% -58.1% 31% -20.3%
20% -62.2% 8% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$20 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage10d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $296 +$135 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $59 +$29 +50%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $68 −$66 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $42 +$28 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 −$47 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$10 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $72 2m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $431 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $148 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $148 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $59 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $68 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $29 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $48 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $16 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.61 · official $71.61 (match) · 22 history records