Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3fc…3038 crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,441 (-35%) realized −$1,438 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%26W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$21
14 days−$1,528
30 days−$1,528
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$1,563
other 32% −$151
crypto 18% +$131
sports 5% +$102
world 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +4.5% -5.4% 51% 49% -8.5%
≤30d 51 +3.0% -6.8% 51% 49% -46.3%
≤90d 51 +3.0% -6.8% 51% 49% -46.3%
all 51 +3.0% -6.8% 51% 49% -46.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 49% -46.3%
10% -15.7% 47% -51.5%
15% -23.8% 45% -56.2%
20% -31.3% 29% -60.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$94 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized−$1,438
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses26 / 25
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage10d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 48¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$19 +38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$16 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$29 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$54 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$49 -49%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$50 -50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$50 -49%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$56 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$87 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$77 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$111 +420%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +41%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $1,820 −$1,563 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $51 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $51 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 44h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 44h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $55 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $80 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.52 · official $146.52 (match) · 91 history records