Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C3 0xc3fb…0dd7 other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$315 (+19%) realized +$310 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt +70% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$394now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$132
sports 49% +$324
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+53.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +69.7% +53.5% 53% 53% +23.5%
≤30d 34 +69.7% +53.5% 53% 53% +23.5%
≤90d 34 +69.7% +53.5% 53% 53% +23.5%
all 34 +69.7% +53.5% 53% 53% +23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +53.5% 53% +23.5%
10% +38.8% 53% +11.7%
15% +25.4% 47% +0.9%
20% +13.1% 41% -9.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +70% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late +104% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$24 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$394
Realized+$310
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions9
Markets (closed)34 / 43
History coverage5d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 52¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 48¢ 46¢ $48 $46 −$2 (-5%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $44 $42 −$2 (-3%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+8%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $65 +$35 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$39 +76%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $80 +$22 +27%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $41 +$51 +126%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 +$38 +62%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $40 +$60 +152%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$2 -9%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$70 +238%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 −$2 -4%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 +$77 +344%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $67 $0 -0%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$91 +1164%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$70 -69%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$55 -54%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $63 −$62 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$25 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$35 +226%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $26 +$8 +29%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 +$162 +428%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $35 +$15 +44%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $16 +$23 +140%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$59 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $26 −$23 -91%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $38 +$62 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 90¢ $92 56m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $41 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 55¢ $35 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 39¢ $38 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $36 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $45 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 23h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $53 23h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 24h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 48¢ $49 24h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 24h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $31 24h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $40 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $65 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 24h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 31h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 67¢ $66 31h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 16¢ $31 35h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 26¢ $46 35h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $8 35h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $3 35h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $45 37h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $30 37h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.46 · official $394.47 (match) · 76 history records