Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:16:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3fa…4531 crypto 861 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$409 (-8%) realized −$409 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate26%221W / 640L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day36.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$394
7 days−$523
14 days−$589
30 days−$589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 85% −$540
crypto 15% −$62
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 224 -6.1% -15.0% 1% 0% -21.4%
≤30d 344 -17.9% -25.7% 7% 6% -21.8%
≤90d 861 -7.9% -16.6% 26% 21% -20.5%
all 861 -7.9% -16.6% 26% 21% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 21% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 19% -28.1%
15% -31.9% 18% -35.1%
20% -38.6% 16% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$409
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses221 / 640
Open positions0
Markets (closed)861 / 861
History coverage54d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day36.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 861 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 27? Jun 26 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27? Jun 26 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 27? Jun 26 $58 −$4 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 27? Jun 26 $32 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 27? Jun 26 $34 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 27? Jun 25 $71 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 27? Jun 25 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27? Jun 25 $8 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 27? Jun 25 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 27? Jun 25 $6 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 27? Jun 25 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 27? Jun 25 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 27? Jun 25 $24 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 25 $15 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? Jun 25 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 26? Jun 25 $20 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 27? Jun 25 $4 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 25 $51 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 27? Jun 25 $13 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 27? Jun 25 $26 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 27? Jun 25 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 27? Jun 25 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 26? Jun 25 $21 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 26? Jun 25 $7 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? Jun 25 $52 −$11 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 27? Jun 25 $104 −$9 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 27? Jun 25 $3 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 26? Jun 25 $56 −$5 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 27? Jun 25 $20 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? Jun 25 $47 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 27? Jun 25 $11 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on June 27? Jun 25 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? Jun 25 $15 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 27? Jun 25 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 27? Jun 25 $36 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 27? Jun 25 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 27? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? Jun 25 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 27? Jun 25 $11 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? Jun 25 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? Jun 25 $42 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 26? Jun 25 $37 −$4 -11%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? Jun 25 $189 −$153 -81%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 26? Jun 25 $59 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 26? Jun 25 $34 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26? Jun 25 $34 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 26? Jun 25 $15 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 26? Jun 25 $90 −$6 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 27? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 52m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 52m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 27? SELL Yes 34¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 27? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 27? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 27? BUY Yes 35¢ $56 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 27? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 27? SELL Yes 42¢ $9 11h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 27? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 27? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 27? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 27? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 27? SELL No 55¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 27? BUY No 55¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 27? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 27? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 27? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 27? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 27? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2752 history records