Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:50:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3f8…5ee2 politics 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%2W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$4
sports 35% −$2
economics 18% −$2
world 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.1% -11.4% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -2.1% -11.4% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 -2.1% -11.4% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 32 -3.9% -13.0% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses2 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage165d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $159 $159 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $189 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $209 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2 $0 -19%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $419 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $198 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 02 $2 $0 -0%
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more? Feb 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Jan 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Jan 27 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 20 $447 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $120 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Jan 19 $120 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 19 $554 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 16 $320 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 15 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 15 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 15 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 14 $497 −$1 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 13 $417 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Jan 13 $80 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $498 −$1 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 me Jan 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 2h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 3h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 3h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 8h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 11h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 11h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 12h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 13h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 13h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 14h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 15h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $168 17h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 19h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $168 20h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 20h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 21h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 21h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 25h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 28h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 35h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 38h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 38h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 42h
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 98¢ $2 141d
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more? SELL No 98¢ $6 141d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 98¢ $2 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.80 · official $158.80 (match) · 78 history records