Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:14:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3f7…c14b crypto 1001 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$243 (-3%) realized −$235 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate81%775W / 179L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day63.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days−$184
14 days−$183
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 62% −$102
crypto 36% −$45
politics 1% +$6
other 0% $0
finance 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 367 -12.0% -20.4% 77% 7% -14.0%
≤30d 933 -3.6% -12.8% 82% 11% -11.3%
≤90d 954 -3.1% -12.4% 81% 11% -11.2%
all 954 -3.1% -12.4% 81% 11% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 11% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 2% -19.7%
15% -28.4% 1% -27.5%
20% -35.4% 1% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$235
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses775 / 179
Open positions47
Markets (closed)954 / 1001
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day63.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 954 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? No 87¢ 84¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 16? No 85¢ 82¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 16? No 73¢ 66¢ $8 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? No 80¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? No 94¢ 93¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? No 84¢ 93¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17? No 94¢ 92¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? No 91¢ 90¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? No 93¢ 90¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? No 89¢ 88¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? No 90¢ 86¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? No 89¢ 84¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? No 82¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? No 85¢ 78¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? No 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? No 80¢ 73¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 16? No 70¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? No 78¢ 62¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? No 88¢ 89¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? No 76¢ 59¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? No 80¢ 64¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? No 78¢ 92¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? No 74¢ 73¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 75¢ 64¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? No 75¢ 64¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 18? Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $37 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $34 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $12 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 18? Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $37 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $18 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL No 73¢ $5 7m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $6 10m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $5 23m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $6 26m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY No 72¢ $5 29m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 97¢ $6 34m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 97¢ $0 34m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $6 47m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? SELL No 74¢ $4 47m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? SELL No 94¢ $6 57m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $6 59m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? SELL No 80¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? SELL No 84¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? SELL No 73¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 89¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 97¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL No 75¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 79¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL No 89¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.64 · official $166.61 · 3500 history records