Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C3 0xc3f6…bab8 sports 351 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$337 (-1%) realized −$335 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%189W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$344est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$250
7 days−$430
14 days+$65
30 days+$392
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$936
other 2% +$378
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -18.4% -26.1% 41% 41% -28.1%
≤30d 40 +14.1% +3.2% 58% 58% -1.4%
≤90d 350 +4.0% -5.9% 54% 53% -10.9%
all 350 +4.0% -5.9% 54% 53% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 53% -10.9%
10% -14.9% 53% -19.5%
15% -23.2% 50% -27.2%
20% -30.7% 44% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$89 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$335
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses189 / 161
Est. fees paid−$344
Open positions1
Markets (closed)350 / 351
History coverage84d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 350 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $140 $138 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 15 $71 −$70 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $149 −$147 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $206 −$203 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $53 +$51 +97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $146 −$144 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $161 −$159 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $69 −$68 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $126 +$104 +83%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $121 +$205 +169%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $100 +$76 +76%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $182 +$163 +90%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $159 −$157 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $142 −$140 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $203 +$155 +76%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $65 +$63 +97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $127 −$125 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $137 +$109 +79%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $183 +$164 +90%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 07 $95 +$75 +79%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 06 $351 −$194 -55%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 06 $30 +$28 +93%
T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Lancashire Jun 05 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $91 +$58 +63%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $153 +$253 +165%
Birmingham: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 03 $62 +$47 +76%
Foggia: Tatiana Prozorova vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 02 $121 +$82 +67%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Ta Jun 02 $61 −$60 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 31 $110 +$275 +250%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $77 +$52 +67%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $112 +$104 +93%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $71 +$54 +76%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 May 26 $84 −$83 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $89 +$94 +105%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $46 +$43 +93%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $152 −$150 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 23 $151 −$149 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 May 21 $122 +$105 +86%
Cervia: Moise Kouame vs Jacopo Vasami May 19 $51 +$45 +90%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5 May 18 $86 −$85 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $96 +$90 +93%
AHL: Colorado Eagles vs. Coachella Valley Firebirds May 14 $61 +$55 +90%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics - Game 1 Winner May 11 $80 +$64 +80%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 08 $91 +$100 +109%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 06 $61 +$46 +76%
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels May 06 $51 +$47 +93%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins May 02 $41 +$39 +97%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South Americ May 01 $101 −$100 -99%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 30 $51 +$47 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 57¢ $142 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 33¢ $34 30h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 47¢ $71 35h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 48¢ $149 35h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $206 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $53 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $87 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $59 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $161 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $69 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 54¢ $126 4d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 37¢ $121 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 49¢ $159 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $142 6d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 56¢ $100 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 52¢ $100 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 52¢ $82 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 56¢ $203 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 50¢ $65 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 51¢ $127 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $183 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 55¢ $137 7d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 55¢ $95 9d
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty SELL Indiana Fever 42¢ $149 10d
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty BUY Indiana Fever 43¢ $351 10d
T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Lancashire BUY Lancashire 48¢ $46 11d
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 BUY Yes 51¢ $30 11d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 60¢ $91 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $153 13d
Birmingham: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 56¢ $62 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.97 · official $137.97 (match) · 841 history records