Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:09:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3f5…2f1b politics 155 markets active 0h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,027 (-1%) realized −$2,027 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate18%28W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,019per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$13
14 days−$26
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$216
politics 39% −$77
sports 11% −$1,763
economics 3% −$3
culture 1% −$3
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
world 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.0% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 -3.0% -12.3% 9% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 77 -4.0% -13.2% 6% 1% -11.3%
all 154 -1.5% -10.9% 18% 10% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 10% -10.7%
10% -19.4% 10% -19.2%
15% -27.2% 7% -27.0%
20% -34.3% 6% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,514) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$22 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$280
Realized−$2,027
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses28 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)154 / 155
History coverage158d
Avg bet$1,019
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $280 $280 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $3,560 −$4 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,973 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $269 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $3,339 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,172 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 15 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $964 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,862 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,799 −$4 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $2,438 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $971 −$1 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $867 −$1 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,171 −$2 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $78 +$75 +97%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $3,004 −$4 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,807 −$3 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? Jun 02 $441 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 28 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $2,451 −$3 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $3,278 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $3,667 −$4 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $68 −$68 -100%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $1,925 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $1,821 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 10 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $3,626 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $2,141 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $2,146 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,165 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $6,467 −$7 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $1,009 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $2,097 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $1,095 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $311 19m
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $311 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $397 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $397 3h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $269 43h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $269 44h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $285 4d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $286 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $504 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $505 4d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $570 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $571 5d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $584 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $585 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $591 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $592 7d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $642 7d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $643 7d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $583 7d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $584 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $540 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $541 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $280 9d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $962 12d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $964 12d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $604 12d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $605 12d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,003 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,004 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $819 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.46 · official $280.46 (match) · 497 history records