Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:49:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C3
0xc3f4…9277
other · 46 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$44
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage321d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 2 History 44 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 76¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $3 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $21 −$1 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $42 −$2 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $63 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 06 $41 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 15 $58 $0 +0%
Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $6 $0 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 14 $72 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 14 $14 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Aug 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1? Aug 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.90–0.94ºC in July 2025? Aug 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 5? Aug 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 05 $54 $0 -1%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 05 $53 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 04 $64 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 04 $67 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 01 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Jul 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 27 $61 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 31% −$1
politics 28% $0
world 26% −$1
economics 12% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $43 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $3 27h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $3 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 72¢ $1 47h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 94¢ $8 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 94¢ $29 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $38 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $19 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $29 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $11 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $17 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $46 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $46 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $18 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $42 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $41 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $45 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $45 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $58 301d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 43% 14% -10.2%
≤30d 8 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 12% -9.9%
≤90d 8 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 12% -9.9%
all 44 +0.1% -9.5% 27% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 2% -9.7%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.02 · official $43.43 (match) · 136 history records