Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:20:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3f4…19d4 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%15W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$1
politics 20% −$1
world 20% −$2
crypto 14% $0
sports 4% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 3% −$1
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 6 -0.4% -9.8% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 6 -0.4% -9.8% 0% 0% -10.3%
all 52 -0.7% -10.2% 29% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 2% -10.0%
10% -18.8% 2% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses15 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage302d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 67¢ 68¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $9 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 20 $122 −$2 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $109 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 01 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $9 +$1 +10%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Dec 19 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Dec 04 $19 −$1 -4%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $5 $0 -5%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Sep 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 17 $5 $0 -8%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will Jeremy Allen White win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a C Sep 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 10 $8 −$1 -8%
Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting? Sep 10 $20 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 10 $9 −$1 -10%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 09 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Aug 29 $36 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in August? Aug 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 27 $3 −$1 -45%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 26 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $32 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $25 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 32h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $32 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $8 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $29 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $36 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $22 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $17 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $32 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $34 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $22 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $22 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $36 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $8 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.88 · official $32.40 (match) · 186 history records