Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:55:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C3 0xc3f4…876e world 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$297 (-11%) realized +$296 · open −$593
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 90% −$276
other 6% −$13
crypto 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 +27.9% +15.8% 100% 50% +24.3%
all 8 -14.5% -22.6% 50% 25% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 25% +6.2%
10% -30.0% 25% -3.9%
15% -36.8% 12% -13.2%
20% -43.0% 0% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$24 · ×4.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.19 per $1 lost it wins $4.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$363
Realized+$296
Unrealized−$593
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)8 / 18
History coverage120d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 35¢ 16¢ $244 $112 −$132 (-54%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $93 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-27%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-30%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $400 $1 −$399 (-100%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$18 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 04 $500 +$234 +47%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 02 $166 +$15 +9%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 17 $360 −$54 -15%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $7 −$3 -42%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 09 $60 −$33 -55%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 09 $250 +$12 +5%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $390 +$136 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $98 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $79 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $26 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $19 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 44d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 55d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $30 55d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 36¢ $50 55d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 42¢ $169 63d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 41¢ $68 79d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 45¢ $75 82d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? SELL Yes 94¢ $734 85d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $181 87d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 88d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $166 88d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $180 97d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $280 102d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $84 103d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $116 107d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 111d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $222 111d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $27 111d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? SELL Yes 21¢ $262 111d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $84 114d
US forces enter Iran by March 7? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 114d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 114d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $60 114d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $363.16 · official $363.16 (match) · 83 history records