Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:49:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3e9…9afa crypto 122 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,089 (-27%) realized −$1,009 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%30W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$69
14 days−$60
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$428
sports 30% −$157
other 24% −$601
politics 2% +$18
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -2.3% -11.6% 31% 29% -13.4%
≤30d 56 +7.7% -2.6% 32% 30% -12.9%
≤90d 111 -23.7% -31.0% 27% 24% -38.8%
all 111 -23.7% -31.0% 27% 24% -38.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 24% -38.8%
10% -37.6% 23% -44.6%
15% -43.6% 20% -50.0%
20% -49.1% 18% -54.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$24 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized−$1,009
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses30 / 81
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions5
Markets (closed)111 / 122
History coverage75d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Under 51¢ 58¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Under 41¢ 18¢ $100 $43 −$57 (-57%)
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $56 $34 −$22 (-39%)
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Under 49¢ 28¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-42%)
Will Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners AND Will Morocco win on Jun 20 $51 +$56 +110%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners AND Scotland vs. Morocco Jun 20 $51 +$38 +75%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $44 +$76 +172%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $36 −$16 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $76 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $62 +$17 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $86 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$30 -95%
Will Jacob Bridgeman win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $36 +$30 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $10 +$88 +856%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $63 −$44 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$29 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $8 −$7 -97%
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $117 −$78 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $63 +$68 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $63 +$71 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $78 +$36 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $74 +$45 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $37 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$38 +260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$2 -7%
Will Athletics win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Jun 17 $13 −$3 -27%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $18 −$12 -65%
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $31 −$2 -8%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -23%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $8 −$3 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 14m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 49¢ $30 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 41¢ $102 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Exact Score: Türkiye 3 BUY 6¢ $12 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0. BUY 47¢ $41 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 4.5 Corners AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay BUY 25¢ $26 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Haiti 35¢ $31 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 4. BUY 22¢ $41 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY 32¢ $20 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners AND Scotland vs. Morocco BUY 28¢ $39 4d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners AND Will Morocco win on BUY 47¢ $51 4d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners AND Scotland vs. Morocco BUY 56¢ $51 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $21 4d
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $36 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $44 4d
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $66 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.64 · official $199.76 · 420 history records