Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:19:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C3
0xc3e9…8e43
weather · 4 markets active 1h ago
6.0score
+$137 +20%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$137 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 0 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$137
14 days+$137
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $243 +$118 +49%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $129 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $111 +$2 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $211 +$18 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 51% +$120
other 49% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $361 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $126 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 84¢ $64 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 93¢ $113 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $66 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 84¢ $64 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $111 5h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $129 19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 99¢ $110 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 90¢ $100 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 83¢ $120 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $111 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +14.6% +3.7% 75% 25% +8.4%
≤30d 4 +14.6% +3.7% 75% 25% +8.4%
≤90d 4 +14.6% +3.7% 75% 25% +8.4%
all 4 +14.6% +3.7% 75% 25% +8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 25% +8.4%
10% -6.2% 25% -2.0%
15% -15.3% 25% -11.4%
20% -23.6% 0% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records