Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3e8…5cf7 crypto 269 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$119 (-7%) realized −$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate67%181W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$25
14 days−$14
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +7.3% -3.0% 71% 71% -13.2%
≤30d 110 -3.6% -12.8% 65% 65% -15.0%
≤90d 269 -8.4% -17.1% 67% 40% -16.6%
all 269 -8.4% -17.1% 67% 40% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 40% -16.6%
10% -25.0% 35% -24.6%
15% -32.3% 31% -31.9%
20% -38.9% 18% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses181 / 88
Open positions0
Markets (closed)269 / 269
History coverage44d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 269 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$12 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 502 history records