Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:35:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3e7…e34a crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized +$35 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 125d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$34
weather 2% −$59
sports 1% −$13
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -21.2% -28.7% 47% 38% -7.9%
≤30d 34 -21.2% -28.7% 47% 38% -7.9%
≤90d 34 -21.2% -28.7% 47% 38% -7.9%
all 39 -19.9% -27.5% 49% 36% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 36% -12.3%
10% -34.5% 23% -20.7%
15% -40.8% 23% -28.3%
20% -46.6% 18% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$34 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)39 / 44
History coverage125d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $129 +$48 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$15 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$52 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$38 +144%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $78 −$18 -23%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $78 −$10 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$11 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $236 +$23 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$18 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$26 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $155 +$130 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $235 +$110 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$4 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$16 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 3? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 12 $245 −$245 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 12 $44 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 12 $100 +$134 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $178 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $118 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $51 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $64 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $55 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 2h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June BUY Yes 1¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.60 · official $7.60 (match) · 114 history records