Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3e6…b2a3 crypto 309 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$168 (-1%) realized −$213 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate93%286W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day53.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days−$403
14 days−$213
30 days−$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 241 -1.7% -11.0% 92% 8% -12.1%
≤30d 309 -0.9% -10.3% 93% 8% -10.6%
≤90d 309 -0.9% -10.3% 93% 8% -10.6%
all 309 -0.9% -10.3% 93% 8% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 8% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 0% -19.2%
15% -26.7% 0% -27.0%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$58 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$213
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses286 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)309 / 309
History coverage8d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day53.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 90¢ 100¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 97¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $55 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $112 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $44 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $43 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $125 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $88 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $61 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $125 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $145 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $84 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $34 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $71 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $140 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $76 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $148 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $130 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $66 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $120 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $57 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $138 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $75 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $74 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $42 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $54 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $96 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $56 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $27 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $76 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $83 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $92 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $46 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $75 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $72 +$6 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $55 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $112 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $35 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $63 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $39 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $39 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $61 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $125 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $145 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $84 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $34 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $71 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $34 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $140 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $76 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $124 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $130 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $66 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $120 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.22 · official $11.71 (match) · 729 history records