Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3e4…b707 other 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%18W / 145L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$11
14 days−$24
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$24
politics 25% −$19
sports 19% −$10
crypto 7% −$3
culture 7% −$6
finance 4% −$1
economics 4% −$3
world 2% −$2
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 77 -0.7% -10.1% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 154 -0.5% -10.0% 9% 0% -9.8%
all 163 -0.5% -9.9% 11% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses18 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)163 / 164
History coverage99d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $194 −$2 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 16 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $52 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 14 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $55 $0 +1%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $17 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $191 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $252 −$1 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $67 −$2 -2%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $112 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $48 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $61 $0 -0%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $55 −$1 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 09 $107 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 07 $47 −$1 -1%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 06 $55 −$1 -2%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $96 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 05 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $53 −$1 -1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 04 $47 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $60 −$4 -7%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $165 −$1 -1%
Will Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $38 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $513 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $107 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $39 −$1 -2%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $105 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $117 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $171 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $633 −$2 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $105 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $58 42m
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $52 8h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $44 8h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $44 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $41 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $41 17h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $49 18h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $50 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $6 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $6 29h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 30h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $18 38h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $52 39h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 45h
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 45h
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $62 2d
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $63 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $49 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $49 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $13 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $13 3d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $56 3d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $56 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $56 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.09 · official $58.09 (match) · 693 history records