Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:35:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3e4…8669 other 287 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$600 (+3%) realized +$723 · open −$123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate19%53W / 228L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days−$932
14 days−$759
30 days−$727
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$2,776
politics 5% +$3,136
world 3% −$730
sports 2% +$217
crypto 1% −$86
weather 0% −$10
tech 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -92.2% -93.0% 5% 5% -76.7%
≤30d 47 -68.3% -71.3% 15% 15% -51.2%
≤90d 88 -46.9% -51.9% 12% 12% -33.1%
all 281 -12.3% -20.6% 19% 18% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 18% -13.2%
10% -28.2% 16% -21.5%
15% -35.1% 16% -29.1%
20% -41.5% 14% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$243 vs −$58 · ×4.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$257
Realized+$723
Unrealized−$123
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses53 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)281 / 287
History coverage231d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 281 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 57¢ $150 $201 +$51 (+34%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $100 $32 −$68 (-68%)
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 8¢ $50 $19 −$31 (-61%)
Will Croatia win the World Cup? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $30 $5 −$25 (-84%)
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $101 +$65 +64%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +55%
Luka Sučić: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 23 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Jun 23 $94 −$94 -100%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 23 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 23 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$64 +125%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$109 +107%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $47 +$1,632 +3459%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 11 $20 +$91 +442%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 10 $52 +$85 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $102 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND BUY 14¢ $50 2d
Luka Sučić: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $20 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $10 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 11d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 17d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 17d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 17d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 17d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 17d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 19d
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 19d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 19d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 19d
Will Croatia win the World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 19d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 19d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 19d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 19d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 19d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 19d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 19d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 19d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,679 43d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 43d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 43d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 45d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.92 · official $256.92 (match) · 1142 history records