Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:23:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3e0…c1d3 other 229 markets active 1h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$50 (-6%) realized −$75 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%60W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$19
14 days−$58
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$42
world 29% −$11
sports 8% +$16
politics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -61.2% -64.9% 8% 8% -42.4%
≤30d 55 -41.8% -47.4% 20% 16% -31.9%
≤90d 216 -12.1% -20.5% 25% 22% -21.6%
all 222 -10.2% -18.7% 27% 24% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 24% -17.0%
10% -26.5% 23% -24.9%
15% -33.6% 21% -32.2%
20% -40.1% 19% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses60 / 162
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)222 / 229
History coverage251d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Yes 22¢ 100¢ $12 $55 +$43 (+354%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 119 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $41 −$11 -27%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 1 Austria? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 2 Austria? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 +$2 +238%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 $0 -6%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 20 $14 −$5 -33%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $3 +$4 +132%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$11 -99%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2 $0 -21%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 $0 -6%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 $0 -6%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -37%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 -11%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -37%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -53%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 -19%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$13 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 42¢ $29 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 32h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 61¢ $2 6d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 8d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 7¢ $3 8d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $7 9d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 83¢ $7 9d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $3 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $12 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 10d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 11d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 11d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.08 · official $55.08 (match) · 396 history records