Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:30:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C3 0xc3e0…fc2d crypto 190 markets active 9h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,014 (-21%) realized −$1,899 · open −$115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%59W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days+$87
14 days−$61
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$1,368
finance 12% −$551
other 5% −$181
world 2% +$3
tech 1% −$52
sports 0% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +21.5% +10.0% 75% 75% +17.7%
≤30d 9 +8.1% -2.2% 67% 67% -22.1%
≤90d 89 -28.9% -35.7% 35% 31% -33.6%
all 185 -22.1% -29.5% 32% 29% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 29% -30.3%
10% -36.3% 23% -37.0%
15% -42.4% 23% -43.1%
20% -48.1% 17% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$38 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$1,899
Unrealized−$115
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses59 / 126
Open positions5
Markets (closed)185 / 190
History coverage102d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $99 $43 −$56 (-56%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in June? Yes 25¢ 13¢ $70 $36 −$34 (-48%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in June? Yes 16¢ 9¢ $50 $28 −$22 (-44%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $35 $28 −$7 (-20%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in June? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026 Jun 17 $40 −$26 -66%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Jun 15 $98 +$48 +49%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 15 $16 +$15 +93%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $95 +$46 +48%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -34%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Jun 10 $150 −$148 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 06 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 06 $22 −$20 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 06 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 06 $60 −$35 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 06 $20 −$19 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 06 $30 +$58 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 06 $5 +$7 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 06 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 06 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 06 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 06 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 06 $35 +$14 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 06 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 06 $25 −$23 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 05 $20 −$18 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 05 $10 +$11 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 05 $20 −$19 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 05 $45 +$22 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 05 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 05 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 05 $20 −$19 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 05 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 05 $42 −$37 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 05 $35 −$33 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 05 $34 +$19 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 05 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 05 $95 +$41 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 05 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 05 $50 −$17 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 05 $160 −$88 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 05 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Apr 04 $150 −$3 -2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 30 $25 −$23 -91%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 30 $25 −$23 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 28 $70 −$16 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 28 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 28 $95 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026 SELL Yes 7¢ $14 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $73 39h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 43h
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026 BUY Yes 22¢ $31 43h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $52 43h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? SELL Yes 39¢ $89 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? SELL Yes 41¢ $26 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 72¢ $30 2d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $52 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $40 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $27 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $58 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 3d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 4d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026 BUY Yes 13¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 4d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 5d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? SELL Yes 15¢ $31 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 5d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 5d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.41 · official $149.41 (match) · 520 history records