Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3df…1004 sports 184 markets active 12h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-3%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%92W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$13
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$51
crypto 27% −$28
other 13% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -9.4% -18.0% 42% 42% -3.9%
≤30d 119 +3.6% -6.2% 48% 47% -8.9%
≤90d 183 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 49% -13.7%
all 183 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 49% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 49% -13.7%
10% -18.2% 43% -21.9%
15% -26.1% 40% -29.5%
20% -33.3% 35% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses92 / 91
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)183 / 184
History coverage32d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 183 Trades
no open positions (50 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 +$3 +76%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$1 +129%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$1 +146%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$3 +158%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $2 +$1 +50%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 +$3 +90%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $2 +$3 +129%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $2 +$3 +169%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $4 +$7 +180%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $2 +$1 +65%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $2 +$2 +119%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $2 +$2 +101%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $2 +$1 +62%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $1 +$1 +134%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $4 +$4 +97%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $2 +$2 +97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $2 +$2 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 +$1 +109%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $3 +$3 +109%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $21 −$20 -97%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $1 $0 -6%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 30 $1 $0 -1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 30 $4 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $1 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 41¢ $1 12h
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Mackenzie McDonald 57¢ $1 18h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $1 18h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 43¢ $1 18h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 18h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 38¢ $2 18h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) SELL Washington Nationals 37¢ $2 18h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 38¢ $2 18h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 43¢ $1 18h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 53¢ $2 18h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? AND Will Belgium win on 20 BUY 18¢ $2 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Yue Yuan 14¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 14¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 16¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 3d
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw BUY Daniel Galan 45¢ $1 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron BUY Daniel Evans 23¢ $1 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Yue Yuan 13¢ $1 3d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 38¢ $2 3d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $2 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 47¢ $2 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 99¢ $3 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 65¢ $2 4d
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris BUY Dane Sweeny 36¢ $2 4d
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina BUY Federico Cina 35¢ $4 4d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ $3 4d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 45¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 407 history records