Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:08:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3df…9945 sports 744 markets active 4h ago coverage 24d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,898 (-1%) realized −$5,898 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%367W / 377L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,230per market
Trades / day105.4pace
Fees−$13,749est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$12,588
other 3% −$2,784
crypto 1% −$417
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 224 -5.4% -14.4% 51% 48% -7.6%
≤30d 744 -10.0% -18.6% 49% 48% -10.7%
≤90d 744 -10.0% -18.6% 49% 48% -10.7%
all 744 -10.0% -18.6% 49% 48% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 48% -10.7%
10% -26.4% 45% -19.2%
15% ← realistic here -33.5% 40% -27.0%
20% -40.0% 32% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$1,500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$755 vs −$777 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,898
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses367 / 377
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$13,749
Open positions0
Markets (closed)744 / 744
History coverage24d
Avg bet$1,230
Trades / day105.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 744 Trades
no open positions (284 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $16,736 +$4,293 +26%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $495 +$1,162 +235%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $509 −$500 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,008 −$13 -1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,025 −$2,000 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,010 +$464 +46%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $201 +$58 +29%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,219 −$1,200 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $306 +$728 +238%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,016 +$1,206 +119%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $807 +$354 +44%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $813 +$955 +117%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5,152 +$2,578 +50%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,723 +$1,434 +83%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $101 +$74 +73%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $204 +$421 +206%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,418 −$595 -42%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,318 −$1,300 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3,799 −$109 -3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,411 +$515 +36%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,027 +$1,176 +58%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5,764 −$2,089 -36%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,035 −$2,000 -98%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $1,425 +$1,510 +106%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $910 +$521 +57%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $609 −$14 -2%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $1,718 −$1,700 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $915 +$1,165 +127%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,627 +$1,625 +100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,730 −$1,700 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $710 −$700 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,618 +$965 +60%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $917 −$900 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $812 +$739 +91%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,513 +$369 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3,922 −$3,878 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $810 +$589 +73%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3,741 +$1,924 +51%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,222 −$1,200 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $408 −$400 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $4,173 +$4,616 +111%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,730 +$1,213 +44%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5,395 +$1,197 +22%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $810 −$20 -2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $604 +$156 +26%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 27¢ $189 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 30¢ $204 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 42¢ $509 4h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 75¢ $994 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 79¢ $16,736 5h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 75¢ $1,008 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $2,025 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $404 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $406 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $303 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $202 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 77¢ $101 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 77¢ $101 8h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $505 8h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 34¢ $823 13h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $306 13h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $306 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $101 13h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1,318 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $102 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $101 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $202 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $101 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $304 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $507 13h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 57¢ $101 13h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 32¢ $204 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2728 history records