Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3dc…e94d crypto 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-4%) realized −$5 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% $0
other 31% −$9
sports 23% +$11
weather 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +7.0% -3.2% 26% 26% -10.5%
≤30d 35 +7.0% -3.2% 26% 26% -10.5%
≤90d 35 +7.0% -3.2% 26% 26% -10.5%
all 35 +7.0% -3.2% 26% 26% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 26% -10.5%
10% -12.5% 26% -19.1%
15% -20.9% 26% -26.9%
20% -28.7% 26% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 0¢ 20¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +409%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +104%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +294%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -92%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -44%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -58%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +220%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +288%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +400%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -16%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +195%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 11h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 11h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 17h
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva BUY Mathys Erhard 3¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.79 · official $0.00 · 66 history records