Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C3 0xc3db…0f98 world 110 markets active 5h ago coverage 126d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$118,795 (+34%) realized +$124,923 · open −$6,128
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate65%62W / 34L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$3,216per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$837est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$94,102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31,777
7 days+$32,486
14 days+$32,486
30 days+$32,456
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$102,015
sports 9% +$10,374
finance 6% +$905
other 4% +$6,873
politics 0% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+41.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +2.9% -6.9% 47% 40% +47.2%
≤30d 16 -3.6% -12.7% 44% 38% +47.1%
≤90d 68 +3.9% -6.0% 63% 44% +21.2%
all 96 +56.4% +41.5% 65% 48% +33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +41.5% 48% +33.5%
10% ← realistic here +28.0% 39% +20.7%
15% +15.6% 34% +9.0%
20% +4.3% 29% -1.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$2,956) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +122% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,294 vs −$467 · ×4.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.96 per $1 lost it wins $8.96
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$94,102
Realized+$124,923
Unrealized−$6,128
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses62 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$837
Open positions14
Markets (closed)96 / 110
History coverage126d
Avg bet$3,216
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 84¢ $33,535 $31,885 −$1,650 (-5%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $27,343 $26,992 −$351 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 70¢ $10,694 $11,372 +$678 (+6%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $6,015 $6,159 +$144 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 76¢ 69¢ $6,124 $5,610 −$515 (-8%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $4,999 $5,083 +$83 (+2%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 44¢ 32¢ $2,548 $1,807 −$741 (-29%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 81¢ $1,583 $1,453 −$130 (-8%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1,447 $1,396 −$51 (-4%)
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 34¢ $1,304 $950 −$354 (-27%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 40¢ 12¢ $2,240 $703 −$1,537 (-69%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Yes 33¢ 16¢ $1,409 $676 −$734 (-52%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Yes 34¢ 1¢ $424 $9 −$416 (-98%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 39¢ 1¢ $563 $8 −$555 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $5,477 +$6,824 +125%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $255 +$607 +238%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $13,061 +$9,131 +70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $22,826 +$16,346 +72%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $6,152 −$182 -3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $236 −$199 -84%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $426 +$402 +94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 +$301 +148%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $2,444 +$7 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $31 −$30 -97%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 May 10 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) May 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 1 Real Madrid CF? May 10 $31 −$30 -98%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 May 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 22 $9,540 +$787 +8%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $308 +$5 +2%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by June 30, 2026? Apr 19 $864 +$339 +39%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $7,169 +$3,498 +49%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026? Apr 16 $10,491 +$912 +9%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $10,716 +$6,291 +59%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $4,714 −$4,714 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 15 $20,611 +$5,441 +26%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026? Apr 13 $191 +$95 +50%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026? Apr 13 $607 −$607 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026? Apr 13 $501 −$501 -100%
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $443 +$1,102 +248%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 12 $10,403 +$5,621 +54%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 8, 2026 Apr 09 $295 +$67 +23%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 08 $4,204 +$838 +20%
Will Iran strike Lebanon in March? Apr 08 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 202 Apr 08 $602 +$1,973 +328%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 08 $324 −$324 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Apr 08 $1,773 −$1,773 -100%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? Apr 08 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? Apr 08 $779 −$779 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Apr 08 $511 −$511 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31? Apr 07 $2,252 +$5 +0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 07 $2,660 −$234 -9%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 5, 2026? Apr 07 $809 +$79 +10%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? Apr 05 $3,420 +$1,881 +55%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $378 +$218 +58%
Will Iran strike Oman again in March? Apr 04 $242 +$265 +110%
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in April 2026? Apr 03 $1,127 +$16 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,447 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $783 6h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $188 6h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $45 6h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 44¢ $2,313 6h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $2 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $176 7h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,444 7h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 73¢ $8 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $255 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $6,124 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $2,700 8h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $948 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $6,322 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $9 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $7,360 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $7,662 8h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 73¢ $170 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1,072 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $1,900 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $1,669 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $9,566 8h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $356 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $1,148 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $61 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $92 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $45 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $652 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $600 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $4,208 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94,101.99 · official $94,103.07 (match) · 1282 history records