Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:12:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc3d8…78c7 politics 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,801 (-35%) realized −$1,586 · open −$215
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$726per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2,192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 47d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$215
world 33% −$1,630
other 6% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-69.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -65.9% -69.2% 0% 0% -84.5%
≤30d 3 -65.9% -69.2% 0% 0% -84.5%
≤90d 3 -65.9% -69.2% 0% 0% -84.5%
all 3 -65.9% -69.2% 0% 0% -84.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -69.2% 0% -84.5%
10% -72.1% 0% -86.0%
15% -74.8% 0% -87.3%
20% -77.3% 0% -88.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -83% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -66% · $-wt -83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$548 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$2,192
Realized−$1,586
Unrealized−$215
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage47d
Avg bet$726
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $1,374 $1,172 −$202 (-15%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $439 $460 +$21 (+5%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 76¢ 71¢ $305 $286 −$19 (-6%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $289 $274 −$16 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Jun 20 $308 −$15 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,019 −$1,019 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $659 −$611 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $293 1h
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $293 1h
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $308 3h
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $308 3h
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? BUY Yes 76¢ $308 29h
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $309 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 3d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $10 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $10 4d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $10 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $48 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $48 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $275 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $345 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $675 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $3 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $5 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $100 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $201 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $4 8d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $678 16d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $415 18d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 51¢ $31 46d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 51¢ $683 46d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 51¢ $3 46d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 51¢ $684 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,191.53 · official $2,191.53 (match) · 75 history records