Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3d7…4713 sports 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$58 (-6%) realized −$57 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%29W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$51
other 28% −$84
crypto 13% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +18.8% +7.5% 61% 57% -15.5%
≤30d 28 +18.8% +7.5% 61% 57% -15.5%
≤90d 32 +10.5% -0.0% 59% 50% -16.9%
all 51 +0.9% -8.7% 57% 51% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 51% -18.6%
10% -17.4% 51% -26.4%
15% -25.4% 49% -33.5%
20% -32.7% 39% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$299
Realized−$57
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses29 / 22
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage100d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$20 +97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $7 +$3 +46%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 +$9 +86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19 +$11 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$10 +105%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 +$12 +165%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16 +$4 +24%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 +$8 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12 +$8 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $9 +$11 +134%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$7 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$29 +56%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $19 +$1 +6%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +238%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$59 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 01 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 01 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 16 $7 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 14 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 14 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 14 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 14 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 5m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 13h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 14h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $7 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 23h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $10 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 37h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $11 37h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $8 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 37h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $12 39h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $12 39h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 39h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $9 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $48 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 94¢ $19 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $5 4d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 6¢ $6 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $13 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.01 · official $296.99 (match) · 86 history records