Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C3 0xc3d5…cf0c other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-9%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$59
sports 18% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.0% -11.3% 57% 57% -20.3%
≤30d 7 -2.0% -11.3% 57% 57% -20.3%
≤90d 7 -2.0% -11.3% 57% 57% -20.3%
all 7 -2.0% -11.3% 57% 57% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 57% -20.3%
10% -19.8% 57% -28.0%
15% -27.5% 57% -34.9%
20% -34.6% 57% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$31 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage5d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $32 +$19 +57%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 18 $24 +$15 +62%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$18 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 −$75 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 61¢ $24 41h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $76 45h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.61 · official $49.61 (match) · 12 history records