Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3d3…804b crypto 1246 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d only
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,720 (-11%) realized −$2,720 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%741W / 528L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day84.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$428
14 days−$1,548
30 days−$3,156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -21.6% -29.1% 36% 18% -17.7%
≤30d 1269 -3.6% -12.8% 58% 56% -21.3%
≤90d 1269 -3.6% -12.8% 58% 56% -21.3%
all 1269 -3.6% -12.8% 58% 56% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 56% -21.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 46% -28.8%
15% -28.7% 32% -35.7%
20% -35.7% 23% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,720
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses741 / 528
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1269 / 1246
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day84.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1269 Trades
no open positions (280 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $74 −$8 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $65 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $39 −$8 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $57 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $67 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $78 −$12 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $75 −$11 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $24 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $66 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$8 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$6 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$8 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$17 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $70 −$7 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$4 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $18 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $18 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $18 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $18 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $12 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records