Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:19:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3d3…9859 world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$4
politics 19% +$1
other 17% −$1
sports 10% +$8
weather 4% +$1
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 13 -5.7% -14.7% 8% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 13 -5.7% -14.7% 8% 0% -10.7%
all 30 -2.0% -11.3% 40% 7% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 7% -8.8%
10% -19.8% 7% -17.5%
15% -27.6% 7% -25.5%
20% -34.7% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage475d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $49 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $76 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $45 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $2 −$1 -60%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 31 $1 $0 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $43 −$2 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $52 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $47 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $17 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $4 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $0 $0 -96%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 05 $23 $0 +1%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Apr 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Apr 05 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Mar 30 $24 $0 +1%
Another Trump x Putin talk in March? Mar 29 $22 +$1 +2%
10-year Treasury yield below 4% before April? Mar 29 $1 $0 -12%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28? Mar 24 $24 $0 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $22 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 22? Mar 22 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Mar 21 $23 $0 +2%
Kent State vs. Akron Mar 20 $14 +$9 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $31 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $48 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $49 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $6 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $6 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $23 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $12 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 16d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $22 16d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $1 16d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $23 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $18 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $26 17d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $0 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $0 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $0 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $2 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $1 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $1 19d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $0 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $42 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $42 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $52 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.20 · official $31.20 (match) · 91 history records