Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:22:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3cf…b9f7 other 62 markets active 3h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$91 (-1%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate16%10W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$9
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$13
politics 16% −$7
other 5% −$28
sports 1% −$44
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 22 +10.6% +0.0% 18% 9% -3.5%
≤90d 41 +5.6% -4.5% 10% 5% -8.1%
all 61 -1.2% -10.6% 16% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 3% -10.0%
10% -19.2% 3% -18.6%
15% -27.0% 3% -26.5%
20% -34.1% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 83% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses10 / 51
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage604d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 29 $7 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $9 $0 -0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $10 +$9 +83%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $6 $0 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $7 +$11 +152%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $91 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $91 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $46 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $44 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $44 $0 -0%
SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks Mar 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-03-15? Mar 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Oilers vs. Blues Mar 27 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 15 $42 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Flyers Mar 11 $42 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 11 $46 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 2h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 3h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $15 2d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $15 3d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 7d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 7d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 54¢ $10 8d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 10d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 10d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 11d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 11d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $7 12d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $7 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 13d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $33 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $9 16d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $9 16d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 18d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 18d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 18d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 19d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.46 · official $33.46 (match) · 269 history records