Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:34:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C3 0xc3cf…f0cb sports 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$57 (+1%) realized +$27 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%30W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day48.9pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$300
other 45% +$66
world 4% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +1.1% -8.5% 51% 47% -0.7%
≤30d 59 +1.1% -8.5% 51% 47% -0.7%
≤90d 59 +1.1% -8.5% 51% 47% -0.7%
all 59 +1.1% -8.5% 51% 47% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 47% -0.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 44% -10.2%
15% -25.2% 37% -18.9%
20% -32.6% 29% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$35 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$320
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses30 / 29
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions6
Markets (closed)59 / 65
History coverage3d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day48.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 71¢ 92¢ $100 $130 +$30 (+30%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 25¢ 41¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+64%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 36¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-27%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $90 −$7 -8%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $228 +$303 +133%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $81 +$30 +38%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$12 -59%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -90%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $55 +$19 +33%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$8 -78%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$4 -43%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $46 −$43 -93%
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $58 −$57 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 −$17 -56%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $61 −$24 -39%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 −$26 -52%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$39 +39%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $101 −$25 -25%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$14 +137%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$6 +29%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$32 +103%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $41 +$36 +89%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$14 +67%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $117 +$22 +19%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $100 −$1 -1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $30 +$31 +101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $353 −$350 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $212 −$210 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $359 +$197 +55%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$58 +57%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $72 +$42 +59%
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $203 +$101 +50%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $71 +$54 +76%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$7 +43%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -86%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$44 +22%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$3 -15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$30 +99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -82%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 70¢ $63 16m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 31m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $15 31m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 25¢ $10 38m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 42m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 43m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 43m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $101 43m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $44 53m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 76¢ $19 53m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $45 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $151 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $111 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 4¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $127 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $25 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $81 15h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 15h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 15h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $76 15h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 27¢ $9 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $74 16h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 5¢ $2 16h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 25¢ $6 16h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 16h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $319.60 · official $319.60 (match) · 146 history records