Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3cf…51d2 other 201 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$332 (+1%) realized −$460 · open +$792
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate24%62W / 199L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day74.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit4%portable
Net worth$3,674now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$888
7 days+$312
14 days−$728
30 days−$631
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$1,025
sports 0% +$158
crypto 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 -64.6% -68.0% 11% 8% -0.5%
≤30d 207 -38.2% -44.1% 17% 10% -8.8%
≤90d 261 -20.6% -28.2% 24% 15% -8.8%
all 261 -20.6% -28.2% 24% 15% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.2% 15% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -35.1% 13% -17.5%
15% -41.3% 12% -25.5%
20% -47.1% 11% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +21% → late -62% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$45 · ×3.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$3,674
Realized−$460
Unrealized+$792
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses62 / 199
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions40
Markets (closed)261 / 201
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$223
Trades / day74.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit4%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 17¢ 32¢ $497 $895 +$398 (+80%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 18¢ 28¢ $465 $703 +$239 (+51%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $249 $245 −$4 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 30¢ 54¢ $119 $214 +$95 (+80%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $153 $178 +$24 (+16%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $136 $141 +$6 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $146 $138 −$8 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $97 $108 +$10 (+11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $112 $106 −$6 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $120 $100 −$20 (-17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $71 $91 +$20 (+28%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $75 $76 +$2 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $54 $64 +$10 (+18%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $77 $56 −$21 (-28%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $56 $54 −$2 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $52 $49 −$3 (-6%)
Will Arman Tsarukyan fight Charles Oliveira next? Yes 3¢ 48¢ $3 $48 +$45 (+1515%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $29 $43 +$14 (+48%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $22 $41 +$19 (+86%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $34 $31 −$3 (-9%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $33 $29 −$4 (-12%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $23 $18 −$6 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 127 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 9? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 7 to Apri Jun 16 $24 −$28 -119%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 11? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tom Izzo win the Men's 2026 Naismith Coach of the Year award? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on April 24? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$3 -443%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 9? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 11? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Travis Steele win the Men's 2026 Naismith Coach of the Year award Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 9? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mark Byington win the Men's 2026 Naismith Coach of the Year award Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Josh Schertz win the Men's 2026 Naismith Coach of the Year award? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 490 million subscribers by April 30? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -109%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 17 to Apr Jun 16 $0 −$7 -21017%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 10 to Apr Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 16 $7 −$15 -227%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 10? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 11? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 11°C on April 9? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$12 -452%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on April 13? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 14? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 13? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cameron Boozer be the NCAA Division 1 leading scorer at the end o Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will P.J. Haggerty be the NCAA Division 1 leading scorer at the end of Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Daeshun Ruffin be the NCAA Division 1 leading scorer at the end o Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 11? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 11? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in March 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 24 to Mar Jun 16 $0 −$2 -1179%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 13? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 23? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $22 1m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 3m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $56 9m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 18m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 23m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 23m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 23m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $30 23m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 30m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $29 43m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $37 43m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 44m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $76 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $37 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $17 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,673.88 · official $3,674.10 (match) · 3500 history records