Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3c7…cfa7 politics 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 656d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%3W / 69L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$11
other 25% −$7
economics 12% −$2
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 72 -0.6% -10.1% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

656d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses3 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage656d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Feb 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Nov 24 $50 −$3 -5%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ja Morant lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the Western Conference? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Julius Randle lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Ansem criminal charges in 2024? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Trudeau out in 2024? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Silver close over $40 at the end of 2024? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
MetaMask airdrop in 2024? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kyler Murray win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Fed emergency rate cut in 2024? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alexandre Sarr win NBA Rookie of the Year? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year? Dec 20 $0 $0 -2%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Colts win the AFC Championship? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Jordan Love win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Travis Etienne Jr. be the top Fantasy Running Back? Dec 10 $0 $0 -0%
Will Nico Iamaleava win the Heisman Trophy? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will Slovan Bratislava win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will Joni Ernst be Trump's Defense Secretary? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Jamie Dimon for Treasury Secretary? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tyus Jones lead the NBA in Assists? Nov 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Buccaneers win the NFC South? Nov 17 $0 $0 -2%
Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship? Nov 17 $0 $0 -4%
Will Trump say "Kamala" in his speech after the election is called? Nov 17 $3 $0 +0%
Annual inflation above 2.4% in October? Nov 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Ollie Watkins be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Nov 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Mircea Geoană win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Nov 11 $0 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 14h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 9d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 10d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 29d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 29d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $48 33d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $48 34d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 37d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 38d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $49 60d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $50 61d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $50 63d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 64d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 73d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 74d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 89d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 89d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 92d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 92d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma SELL No 100¢ $50 94d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $50 94d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 97d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 98d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $50 104d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $50 104d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $50 111d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $50 112d
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $48 131d
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $48 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records