Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:22:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3c7…8e14 crypto 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$817 (-7%) realized −$817 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%27W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,242
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +36.2% +23.2% 33% 25% -20.0%
≤30d 36 +36.2% +23.2% 33% 25% -20.0%
≤90d 79 +13.5% +2.7% 34% 30% -27.7%
all 79 +13.5% +2.7% 34% 30% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 30% -27.7%
10% -7.1% 29% -34.6%
15% -16.1% 28% -40.9%
20% -24.3% 27% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$122 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$817
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses27 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)79 / 79
History coverage42d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 79 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 29 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 29 $168 −$160 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 29 $65 −$62 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 29 $106 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $116 −$110 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$122 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $144 −$139 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $116 −$110 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$19 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 29 $228 +$217 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $210 +$567 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $103 +$56 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 28 $116 −$110 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $210 −$109 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $104 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 28 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $104 +$106 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 28 $104 +$124 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $207 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 28 $106 +$234 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $105 +$200 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $1 +$24 +2243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 18 $121 −$121 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 18 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 18 $146 +$182 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 18 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 18 $156 +$162 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 18 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 18 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 18 $412 −$115 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 18 $212 −$126 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 18 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 18 $21 +$193 +906%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 18 $206 +$160 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 18 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 18 $207 +$205 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records