Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:47:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3c5…684e other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 567d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% $0
sports 31% $0
politics 22% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 27 -11.4% -19.8% 4% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 4% -9.7%
10% -27.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -34.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -40.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

567d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage567d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $8 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Raiders win the AFC Championship? Nov 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? Oct 23 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2025? Jul 12 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? Jun 11 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 08 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? May 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Broncos win Super Bowl 2025? May 06 $1 $0 -2%
Manchester United wins the Premier League? Apr 17 $0 $0 +11%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 24 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 23 $1 $0 -17%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 12 $0 $0 +0%
Southampton wins the Premier League? Dec 11 $0 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 26 $88 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $9 22d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $9 22d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 61d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 61d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 62d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 62d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 83d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 83d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 97d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 97d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 122d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 122d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $8 146d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $8 146d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $9 184d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $9 184d
Will the Raiders win the AFC Championship? SELL No 100¢ $9 218d
Will the Raiders win the AFC Championship? BUY No 100¢ $9 218d
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? SELL No 99¢ $10 236d
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? BUY No 100¢ $10 236d
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? SELL No 99¢ $9 267d
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? BUY No 99¢ $9 268d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 300d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 300d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 300d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $0 338d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $1 338d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes $1 338d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records