Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:39:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc3c4…55cf politics 221 markets active 1h ago coverage 615d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,146 (-4%) realized −$3,233 · open +$87
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate57%117W / 89L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$341per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2,587now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$601
7 days+$1,658
14 days+$1,658
30 days+$1,658
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% +$477
other 24% +$261
world 14% −$1,727
sports 12% +$89
crypto 12% −$2,309
culture 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +58.0% +43.0% 73% 68% +38.4%
≤30d 22 +58.0% +43.0% 73% 68% +38.4%
≤90d 22 +58.0% +43.0% 73% 68% +38.4%
all 206 +9.0% -1.4% 57% 45% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 45% -13.6%
10% -10.8% 37% -21.9%
15% -19.4% 32% -29.4%
20% -27.3% 25% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$189 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

615d coverage
Net worth$2,587
Realized−$3,233
Unrealized+$87
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses117 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions15
Markets (closed)206 / 221
History coverage615d
Avg bet$341
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 84¢ $200 $228 +$28 (+14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $150 $206 +$56 (+38%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 65¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 36¢ $100 $169 +$69 (+69%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $150 $166 +$16 (+11%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $150 $142 −$8 (-5%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 44¢ $200 $141 −$59 (-29%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $303 +$114 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $203 +$251 +124%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$218 +72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$84 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$76 +50%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$352 +344%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $153 +$396 +258%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$282 +276%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$168 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Mar 7? Mar 07 $3,124 −$3,124 -100%
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today? Mar 07 $2,527 +$594 +24%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Mar 06 $2,297 +$230 +10%
Another commercial airline evacuation before March? Mar 05 $244 −$244 -100%
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? Feb 28 $3,804 +$741 +20%
Will Kanye tweet again by Friday? Feb 28 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by Friday? Feb 27 $2,281 +$143 +6%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Feb 24 $2,312 +$401 +17%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Feb 16 $70 −$70 -100%
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary? Feb 16 $1,763 +$159 +9%
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? Feb 13 $2,606 +$228 +9%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Feb 12 $58 −$58 -100%
Super Bowl LIX Winner Feb 10 $39 +$34 +85%
Du Plessis vs. Strickland Feb 10 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Caitlyn Jenner attend presidential inauguration? Feb 10 $2,422 −$2,422 -100%
Weili vs. Suarez Feb 10 $40 +$49 +122%
Will Joe Rogan attend presidential inauguration? Jan 20 $240 −$62 -26%
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his Jan 20 $317 −$153 -48%
Kamala and Trump shake hands at inauguration? Jan 20 $3 +$7 +257%
Trump second inauguration gets more viewers than first? Jan 20 $987 −$52 -5%
Will Brighton win on 2025-01-19? Jan 19 $30 +$35 +118%
Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov Jan 19 $43 +$97 +223%
Prochazka vs. Hill Jan 19 $70 +$73 +104%
Will Lara Trump be appointed as the next Florida senator? Jan 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech? Jan 18 $219 +$10 +5%
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? Jan 18 $151 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech? Jan 17 $119 +$31 +26%
Yoon arrested by Friday? Jan 15 $615 −$615 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 65¢ $202 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $253 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $204 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 20h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 21h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 2d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 2d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $202 2d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $153 2d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $153 2d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $202 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $203 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $152 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $152 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 3d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,587.15 · official $2,587.19 (match) · 1120 history records