Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

C3 0xc3c4…fe91 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$52 (+23%) realized +$52 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown20%max

Avg bet$56per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-13.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+43.8%	+30.1%	100%	100%	+30.1%
≤30d	3	-4.1%	-13.2%	67%	67%	+21.4%
≤90d	3	-4.1%	-13.2%	67%	67%	+21.4%
all	3	-4.1%	-13.2%	67%	67%	+21.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.2%	67%	+21.4%
10%	-21.5%	67%	+9.8%
15%	-29.1%	67%	-0.8%
20%	-36.1%	0%	-10.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +34% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt +34% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$30 vs −$10 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×6.1 per $1 lost it wins $6.1

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$76

Realized+$52

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage18d

Avg bet$56

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown20%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$76	$76	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$70	+$28	+40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$68	+$32	+48%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$10	−$10	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$77	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	98¢	$97	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$70	17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$68	17h
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	59¢	$10	17d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.50 · official $75.50 (match) · 6 history records