Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3bf…e70f other 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1943 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32,465 (+48%) realized +$32,889 · open −$424
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate27%42W / 116L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$799per market
Trades / day1942.8pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$13,269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$11,754
sports 2% −$237
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1943 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 -10.5% -19.0% 27% 15% +0.1%
≤30d 158 -10.5% -19.0% 27% 15% +0.1%
≤90d 158 -10.5% -19.0% 27% 15% +0.1%
all 158 -10.5% -19.0% 27% 15% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1942.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 15% +0.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 12% -9.5%
15% -33.8% 10% -18.2%
20% -40.3% 9% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +73% → late -94% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
37.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$320 vs −$32 · ×9.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.61 per $1 lost it wins $3.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$13,269
Realized+$32,889
Unrealized−$424
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses42 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions102
Markets (closed)158 / 85
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$799
Trades / day1942.8
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 102 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 99¢ $2,826 $2,937 +$110 (+4%)
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,972 $1,975 +$3 (+0%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 99¢ $940 $988 +$48 (+5%)
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 91¢ 94¢ $910 $945 +$35 (+4%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 86¢ 90¢ $860 $895 +$35 (+4%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? No 92¢ 93¢ $570 $576 +$6 (+1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? No 81¢ 84¢ $405 $422 +$17 (+4%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $385 $363 −$22 (-6%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? No 97¢ 98¢ $354 $357 +$3 (+1%)
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $255 $308 +$53 (+21%)
Will September be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $230 $288 +$58 (+25%)
Will October be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 13¢ 19¢ $170 $245 +$75 (+44%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? No 90¢ 94¢ $200 $209 +$9 (+5%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 20¢ $89 $195 +$106 (+118%)
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $219 $192 −$27 (-12%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? No 87¢ 90¢ $172 $177 +$5 (+3%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $188 $160 −$28 (-15%)
Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $122 $159 +$36 (+29%)
Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 5.50%? Yes 9¢ 28¢ $50 $154 +$104 (+210%)
Will July be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $124 $154 +$29 (+24%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $127 $138 +$11 (+8%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $119 $124 +$5 (+5%)
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 95¢ $92 $96 +$4 (+4%)
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $78 $86 +$9 (+11%)
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $331 $79 −$252 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 17 $429 −$429 -100%
Exact Score: Luxembourg 2 - 3 Italy? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-23? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 2 - 1 Chelsea FC? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Serbia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mikel Arteta be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -84%
Will Andoni Iraola be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $280 −$280 -100%
Will May be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Greece? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Mauricio Pochettino be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2 - 2 Hamburger SV? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 3 Greece? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 2 - 2 Nottingham Forest FC? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Greece? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 2 1. FC Köln? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lionel Scaloni be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 17 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Didier Deschamps be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Greece? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 2 Greece? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Luis Enrique be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Greece? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Unai Emery be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Greece? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 17 $140 −$108 -77%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 0m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 0m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 0m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 0m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 0m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2m
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3m
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3m
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4m
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4m
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 7m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 9m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 10m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 13m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 13m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 13m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,268.62 · official $13,265.45 (match) · 3500 history records