Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:25:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3bc…31fb sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$93 (+16%) realized +$81 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$63
sports 48% +$60
crypto 2% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.7% -10.1% 71% 43% +5.5%
≤30d 7 -0.7% -10.1% 71% 43% +5.5%
≤90d 7 -0.7% -10.1% 71% 43% +5.5%
all 7 -0.7% -10.1% 71% 43% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 43% +5.5%
10% -18.7% 29% -4.6%
15% -26.6% 14% -13.8%
20% -33.8% 14% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$22 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.89 per $1 lost it wins $2.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$81
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 75¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Curaçao 47¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 +$32 +32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 +$17 +17%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $50 +$70 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $98 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $130 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 82¢ $13 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $98 9h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $30 10h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 96¢ $100 20h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 97¢ $100 22h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 85¢ $100 26h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 41¢ $50 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.65 (match) · 13 history records